221 Fair Park Dr · Foscoe, NC 28605

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1981 5,227 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Small but well maintained two bedroom one bath mobile home close to Blowing Rock. Has a view of Grandfather Mountain from the screened in porch and comes furnished. Community water and shared septic with the neighbors. The septic tank is on the adjacent property.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Community water
• Shared septic

Tags

• VIEW OF GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• COMMUNITY WATER
• SHARED SEPTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $150 (about $12.50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; No garage; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Shared septic
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a single-level residence
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Paved private road with private maintenance; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Exhaust fan for ventilation; No central cooling
• Interior features: High speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 0.4% in Foscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#363 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Watauga County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 178 in NC (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blowing Rock Elementary (math 69% / reading 74%, grade A-, #81 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 431 students, 19% FRL); Watauga High (math 76% / reading 74%, grade A-, #91 of 535 statewide, top 17%, 1,272 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Watauga County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 296 units permitted in Watauga County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Watauga County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-278
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $30,317
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28605

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$69/mo · 214.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 1 d/yr ≥91°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$519
• After-tax cash flow: $3,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watauga County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704830
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,936
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2430
• State rank: #47 of 178 in NC

Livability — Foscoe

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #14456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,471

Population outlook (Watauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,523 people
• By 2030: 63,047 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 68,332 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 73,638 · +23.7%
• By 2075: 86,964 · +46.1%
• By 2100: 99,206 · +66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 5% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Watauga

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.0) · D 52.3% · R 46.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.0 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+1.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.42%
• Current HPI: 318.9294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,000 HCMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $388 · +64.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.