810 Route 343

Millbrook, NY 12522

$599,408C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,143
• Tax + insurance: −$981
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,116
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $907/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $167,834

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($907/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $532k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $532k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Alden Place Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 169 students, 30% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 17% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $599k implies a 435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.