810 Route 343 · Millbrook, NY 12522

$599,408

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1940 2.06 ac lot $279/sqft · 8% below area Est $652k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 2.1 serene acres in the heart of Dutchess County, this thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern functionality. Ideally positioned near the Wassaic Train, the Taconic Parkway, Millbrook, and Dover Plains, the property provides both privacy and convenience. Step inside to discover warm wood floors throughout the main level, creating an inviting and cohesive living space. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, where tiled flooring, paneled walls, and the option to install a wood or pellet stove create a cozy yet refined atmosphere. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and updated countertops, making it both stylish and practical for everyday living and entertaining. A formal dining room and spacious living room provide elegant spaces for gatherings, while the main floor bedroom and full bath with integrated laundry offer flexibility and ease of living. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with its own full bath. Two additional bedrooms complete the second level, offering ample space for guests, family, or home office needs. Outdoor living is equally appealing, with a deck overlooking the expansive backyard--perfect for relaxing or entertaining in a tranquil setting. A standout feature of this property is the detached three-bay garage with soaring ceilings and a versatile second floor. This additional space presents endless possibilities, whether as a home office, artist's studio, fitness area, or creative retreat. This exceptional property combines space, comfort, and adaptability in a picturesque setting--an ideal opportunity to enjoy country living with modern conveniences. Seller is related to list agent

Key facts

• 2.06 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Garage with door opener; Total parking for 6 vehicles; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Front yard fencing; Shed(s) on property; Block foundation; Not waterfront; Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Landscaped grounds; Level lot; Near public transit; Partially wooded; Rolling slope; Sloped areas; Views; Wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Open and eat-in kitchen; Walk-through layout
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Combination of carpet, ceramic tile and hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Hot water heating; Radiant heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Beamed ceilings; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; High-speed internet available; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Basement present (crawl space, unfinished); Full attic with pull-down stairs; Total of 8 rooms; Two levels; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in bathroom (per features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($907/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $532k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $532k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Alden Place Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 169 students, 30% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 17% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $599k implies a 435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $531,653 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $651,903
• List price: $599,408
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $331,337
• Equity at exit: $539,994

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $972,085
• Equity at exit: $1,164,518

Cash invested: $167,834 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,143
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,979/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,116
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,221

Max offer price $599,408

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,852
• Closing costs: $17,982
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,408 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,408 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,408 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,408 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,408 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $599,408 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,408 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,408 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,408 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,408 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $599,408 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,408 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,408 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,408 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $599,408 Active 1867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

    Set on 2.1 serene acres in the heart of Dutchess County, this thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern functionality. Ideally positioned near the Wassaic Train, the Taconic Parkway, Millbrook, and Dover Plains, the property provides both privacy and convenience. Step inside to discover warm wood floors throughout the main level, creating an inviting and cohesive living space. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, where tiled flooring, paneled walls, and the option to install a wood or pellet stove create a cozy yet refined atmosphere. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and updated countertops, making it both stylish and practical for everyday living and entertaining. A formal dining room and spacious living room provide elegant spaces for gatherings, while the main floor bedroom and full bath with integrated laundry offer flexibility and ease of living. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with its own full bath. Two additional bedrooms complete the second level, offering ample space for guests, family, or home office needs. Outdoor living is equally appealing, with a deck overlooking the expansive backyard--perfect for relaxing or entertaining in a tranquil setting. A standout feature of this property is the detached three-bay garage with soaring ceilings and a versatile second floor. This additional space presents endless possibilities, whether as a home office, artist's studio, fitness area, or creative retreat. This exceptional property combines space, comfort, and adaptability in a picturesque setting--an ideal opportunity to enjoy country living with modern conveniences. Seller is related to list agent

16. 2026-05-08
    listed $599,408 Active 1765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

    Set on 2.1 serene acres in the heart of Dutchess County, this thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern functionality. Ideally positioned near the Wassaic Train, the Taconic Parkway, Millbrook, and Dover Plains, the property provides both privacy and convenience. Step inside to discover warm wood floors throughout the main level, creating an inviting and cohesive living space. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, where tiled flooring, paneled walls, and the option to install a wood or pellet stove create a cozy yet refined atmosphere. The kitchen is equipped with newer appliances and updated countertops, making it both stylish and practical for everyday living and entertaining. A formal dining room and spacious living room provide elegant spaces for gatherings, while the main floor bedroom and full bath with integrated laundry offer flexibility and ease of living. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with its own full bath. Two additional bedrooms complete the second level, offering ample space for guests, family, or home office needs. Outdoor living is equally appealing, with a deck overlooking the expansive backyard--perfect for relaxing or entertaining in a tranquil setting. A standout feature of this property is the detached three-bay garage with soaring ceilings and a versatile second floor. This additional space presents endless possibilities, whether as a home office, artist's studio, fitness area, or creative retreat. This exceptional property combines space, comfort, and adaptability in a picturesque setting--an ideal opportunity to enjoy country living with modern conveniences. Seller is related to list agent

17. 2014-07-20
    historical
18. 2014-01-21
    listed $295,000
19. 2014-01-20
    historical
20. 2013-08-06
    listed $295,000
21. 2013-05-31
    historical
22. 2013-05-31
    historical
23. 2012-06-25
    listed
24. 2012-06-25
    listed $320,000
25. 1987-11-30
    soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,979 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,054 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,076/yr (+$90/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,576
• − Property taxes: −$7,979
• − Insurance: −$3,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,104
• − Management: −$5,104
• − Depreciation: −$17,437
• Taxable loss: −$9,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,207
• After-tax cash flow: $3,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millbrook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619380
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,504
• Composite: 58.47/100
• National rank: #2061
• State rank: #198 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+435.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $599,408 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $599,408 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-21 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-06 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2012-06-25 Listed $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-25 Listed — HGMLS
• 1987-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,979 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.