23917 Deer Rd

Astor, FL 32102

$195,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-359/mo
• Annual: $-4,306/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (42.7% below list).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $195k implies a 449% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.