23917 Deer Rd · Astor, FL 32102

$195,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1983 500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great mobile home with enclosed porch, fully furnished, nice lot.

Key facts

• New drywall
• New bay windows
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• NEW DRYWALL
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW BAY WINDOWS
• NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOP
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub-type: Manufactured Home; Body type: Double Wide; Zoning: R-7; Lot about 0.17 acre (approx. 75 x 100); Living area reported as 768 sq ft; total building area 1,476 sq ft; Foundation: Crawlspace; Furnished: Yes

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $195k implies a 449% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,248
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55710 Fern Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	2mo	$80,000	$111	72
24048 Ermine Rd	0.16mi	2/2.0	672 (-12%)	7mo	$50,000	$74	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,768
• Equity at exit: $76,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $46,354
• Equity at exit: $109,618

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32102

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,644/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $178,157

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-40	+0% $-95	+5% $-151	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-153	+0% $-95	+5% $-38	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-46	base $-95	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24048 Ermine Rd Astor, FL	2.0	2.0	728	$1,450	$1.99	7d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active
16. 2026-05-15
    status Pending
17. 2025-12-03
    listed $195,000 Active
18. 2016-08-31
    soldstatus $35,500 Sold 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Great mobile home with enclosed porch, fully furnished, nice lot.

19. 2016-08-23
    status Pending 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Great mobile home with enclosed porch, fully furnished, nice lot.

20. 2016-07-08
    listed $39,500 Active 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Great mobile home with enclosed porch, fully furnished, nice lot.

21. 2015-10-24
    historical
22. 2014-06-14
    status Active
23. 2014-06-10
    historical
24. 2014-04-27
    listed $49,000 Active
25. 2002-04-08
    soldstatus $51,000
26. 1996-12-17
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,644
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,599
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Astor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,401

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Portuguese 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• Current HPI: 232.7974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+420.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-31 Sold (MLS) $35,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-08 Listed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-27 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,644 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.