1163 Orange Tree Cir W Unit D

Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$155,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Pending · 299 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-946/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-946/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $155k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?