100 Fox Rd

Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18328

$287,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,063 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-502/mo
• Annual: $-6,023/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.47%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $80,612

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $288k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.