100 Fox Rd · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18328

$287,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,063 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1990 0.33 ac lot $140/sqft · 24% above area Est $303k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and well maintained home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! The updated kitchen is a true highlight, featuring modern finishes and ample space for cooking and entertaining. Just off th main living area, you'll find a stunning 4 season room- perfect for enjoying your coffee, and soaking up nature, relaxing with a book or hosting guests year round. ideally located near Milford and surrounded by state game lands, this property offers easy access to hiking, nature, and endless opportunities for family retreats and outdoor adventures. With a comfortable layout and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for everyday living or a peaceful getaway Don't miss your chance to make it yours !

Key facts

• 4 season room
• Updated kitchen
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• 4 SEASON ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING
• SURROUNDED BY STATE GAME LANDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $288k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $198,230 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.47%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,654
• List price: $287,900
• Delta: -4.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Lake Forest Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,033 (-2%)	5mo	$309,900	$152	90
109 Lake Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (-1%)	7mo	$497,000	$243	65
155 Fox Rd	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,834 (-11%)	12mo	$299,000	$163	61
103 Yvonne Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,114 (+2%)	12mo	$285,000	$135	58
108 Saint Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,932 (-6%)	20mo	$197,000	$102	56
565 Silver Lake Rd	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,257 (+9%)	16mo	$390,000	$173	39
199 Lake Forest Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,778 (-14%)	8mo	$335,000	$188	35
121 Caribou Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,352 (+14%)	23mo	$315,000	$134	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $124,911
• Equity at exit: $259,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $393,134
• Equity at exit: $559,326

Cash invested: $80,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,262/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $199,240

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,975
• Closing costs: $8,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $287,900 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $287,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $297,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $297,500 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and well maintained home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! The updated kitchen is a true highlight, featuring modern finishes and ample space for cooking and entertaining. Just off th main living area, you'll find a stunning 4 season room- perfect for enjoying your coffee, and soaking up nature, relaxing with a book or hosting guests year round. ideally located near Milford and surrounded by state game lands, this property offers easy access to hiking, nature, and endless opportunities for family retreats and outdoor adventures. With a comfortable layout and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for everyday living or a peaceful getaway Don't miss your chance to make it yours !

16. 2026-05-15
    price $277,900 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and well maintained home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! The updated kitchen is a true highlight, featuring modern finishes and ample space for cooking and entertaining. Just off th main living area, you'll find a stunning 4 season room- perfect for enjoying your coffee, and soaking up nature, relaxing with a book or hosting guests year round. ideally located near Milford and surrounded by state game lands, this property offers easy access to hiking, nature, and endless opportunities for family retreats and outdoor adventures. With a comfortable layout and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for everyday living or a peaceful getaway Don't miss your chance to make it yours !

17. 2026-04-30
    price $307,500 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and well maintained home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! The updated kitchen is a true highlight, featuring modern finishes and ample space for cooking and entertaining. Just off th main living area, you'll find a stunning 4 season room- perfect for enjoying your coffee, and soaking up nature, relaxing with a book or hosting guests year round. ideally located near Milford and surrounded by state game lands, this property offers easy access to hiking, nature, and endless opportunities for family retreats and outdoor adventures. With a comfortable layout and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for everyday living or a peaceful getaway Don't miss your chance to make it yours !

18. 2026-03-17
    listed $314,900 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and well maintained home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! The updated kitchen is a true highlight, featuring modern finishes and ample space for cooking and entertaining. Just off th main living area, you'll find a stunning 4 season room- perfect for enjoying your coffee, and soaking up nature, relaxing with a book or hosting guests year round. ideally located near Milford and surrounded by state game lands, this property offers easy access to hiking, nature, and endless opportunities for family retreats and outdoor adventures. With a comfortable layout and inviting atmosphere, this home is perfect for everyday living or a peaceful getaway Don't miss your chance to make it yours !

19. 2015-04-20
    soldstatus $122,500
20. 2015-04-15
    soldstatus $122,500 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Custom tile work in kitchen and bathroom (2) make for a nicely renovated home! Kitchen is all new with sky lights and SS appliances, LR w/ brick FP and cathedral ceilings, FR w/ cathedral ceilings and T & G. So many windows, 3+ bedrooms, 2 baths, LR, workshop and 2+ car garage. Easy access and close to bridge for commuting. Sq. ft. is appx. , Eating Area: Formal DN Room

21. 2014-12-01
    listed $134,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Custom tile work in kitchen and bathroom (2) make for a nicely renovated home! Kitchen is all new with sky lights and SS appliances, LR w/ brick FP and cathedral ceilings, FR w/ cathedral ceilings and T & G. So many windows, 3+ bedrooms, 2 baths, LR, workshop and 2+ car garage. Easy access and close to bridge for commuting. Sq. ft. is appx. , Eating Area: Formal DN Room

22. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $40,000
23. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $40,000
24. 2014-03-18
    listed $44,900
25. 2013-12-18
    soldstatus $45,000
26. 2013-08-01
    listed $44,900
27. 2013-08-01
    listed $49,000
28. 2003-09-17
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,262 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,405 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,127
• − Property taxes: −$4,262
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$8,375
• Taxable loss: −$11,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+98.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $297,500 PWMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $277,900 PWMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $307,500 PWMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $314,900 PWMLS
• 2015-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2015-04-15 Sold (MLS) $122,500 PWMLS
• 2014-12-01 Listed $134,900 PWMLS
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PMAR
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PWMLS
• 2014-03-18 Listed $44,900 PMAR
• 2013-12-18 Sold (MLS) $45,000 PMAR
• 2013-08-01 Listed $49,000 PMAR
• 2013-08-01 Listed $44,900 PWMLS
• 2003-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,262 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.