3361 Yost Ln

Cherry Hill, VA 22026

$265,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 865 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$288
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-303/mo
• Annual: $-3,637/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#310 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Swans Creek Elementary (math 44% / reading 61%, grade C-, #694 of 1,108 statewide, top 63%, 615 students, 68% FRL); Potomac Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 919 students, 67% FRL); Potomac High (math 62% / reading 78%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,065 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 31% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $190k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Cherry Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.