3361 Yost Ln · Cherry Hill, VA 22026

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 865 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An excellent opportunity for a first-time homebuyer, ideally situated just off Route 1 with quick, easy access to I-95. Updated pictures coming soon.

Key facts

• Built 1990
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Cherry Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#310 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Swans Creek Elementary (math 44% / reading 61%, grade C-, #694 of 1,108 statewide, top 63%, 615 students, 68% FRL); Potomac Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 919 students, 67% FRL); Potomac High (math 62% / reading 78%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,065 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 31% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $190k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,479 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-65,119
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-93,004
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22026

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,134/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$288
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $211,453

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-228	+0% $-303	+5% $-378	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-386	+0% $-303	+5% $-220	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-236	base $-303	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3361 Yost Ln Unit 103 Dumfries, VA	2.0	2.0	967	$1,900	$1.96	45d	1	0.04mi
3465 Dry Powder Cir Dumfries, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,960	$2.02	7d	11	0.14mi
3511 Briarwood Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,840	$2.08	7d	8	0.31mi
3119 Chesapeake Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0	1.0	738	$1,690	$2.29	45d	1	0.41mi
17360 Tripoli Blvd Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$2,790	$2.65	45d	1	0.58mi
17413 Cosgrove Way Dumfries, VA	1.0	1.0	910	$1,200	$1.32	7d	1	0.66mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,392	$2.36	0d	22	0.78mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,264	$2.24	45d	17	0.78mi
2900 Fox Lair Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,275	$2.68	45d	1	1.09mi
2810 Woodmark Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	916	$1,840	$2.01	3d	16	1.15mi
16500 Stedham Cir Montclair, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,846	$2.77	0d	18	1.37mi
16492 Steerage Cir Woodbridge, VA	1.0	1.0	656	$1,500	$2.29	45d	1	1.39mi
3456 Eagle Ridge Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0	1.0	962	$1,400	$1.46	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 150-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $265,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,134
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$3,456
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cherry Hill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #11135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Hill, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 21,025
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,897
• Household income: $124,318
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 571.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.02%
• Current HPI: 289.8992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+215.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $265,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $161,500 Public Records
• 1997-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $63,900 Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,005 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,134 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.