16027 Winchmore Hill Dr

Houston, TX 77379

$460,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,208 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$876
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$907
• Net cashflow: $102/mo
• Annual: $1,229/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $432k (6.1% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $432k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brill El (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 929 students, 48% FRL); Kleb Int (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,434 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $460k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,319/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 2220% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.