16027 Winchmore Hill Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$460,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 0.28 ac lot Est $462k · at est. $21/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $432k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $432k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brill El (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 929 students, 48% FRL); Kleb Int (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,434 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,319/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 2220% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $460k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $431,885 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $461,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16406 Farnell Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,259 (+2%)	3mo	$510,000	$156	80
16257 Salmon Ln	0.30mi	4/3.5	3,016 (-6%)	0mo	$430,000	$143	76
16119 Maplehurst Dr	0.27mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,320 (+4%)	1mo	$479,000	$144	76
13 Stonegate Park Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,068 (-4%)	2mo	$430,000	$140	75
16115 Abberton Hill Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,931 (-9%)	2mo	$419,878	$143	73
16030 Rudgewick Ln	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,461 (+8%)	2mo	$449,999	$130	60
9318 Appin Falls Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	3,046 (-5%)	1mo	$529,000	$174	57
9311 Windrush Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,550 (+11%)	1mo	$549,999	$155	53
8007 Sunset Falls Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,496 (+9%)	1mo	$675,000	$193	45
9410 Taidswood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,832 (-12%)	1mo	$350,000	$124	45
16114 Hexham Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,780 (-13%)	2mo	$405,000	$146	41
9507 Godstone Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,761 (-14%)	2mo	$389,000	$141	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-80,529
• Equity at exit: $68,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-110,047
• Equity at exit: $39,772

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,214/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$907
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,189

Max offer price $460,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $233	+0% $102	+5% $-28	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-68	+0% $102	+5% $273	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $219	base $102	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16623 Manningtree Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2572	$2,800	$1.09	45d	1	0.30mi
9131 Durango Point Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2989	$2,650	$0.89	45d	1	1.44mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $460,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $460,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $460,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $460,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $460,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $460,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $460,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,214 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,418 · $702/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$8,214
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,146
• − Management: −$4,146
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$6,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $2,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+208.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $460,000 HARMLS
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,214 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.