1303 30th #3

Ilwaco, WA 98644

$132,500B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,084/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $730/mo
• Annual: $8,764/yr
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.62%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $37,100

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($916 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.