17147 Hope Island Ln

La Conner, WA 98257

$450,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-209/mo
• Annual: $-2,505/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#56 in WA, #1,009 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: cost of living D+.
• La Conner School District (town): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #204 of 291 in WA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $450k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.2% in La Conner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.