16 Caribbean Ct #16

Mandeville, LA 70448

$239,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,067 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 202 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$540
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-439/mo
• Annual: $-5,271/yr
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.88%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandeville Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #35 of 646 statewide, top 5%, 551 students, 29% FRL); Tchefuncte Middle School (math 65% / reading 71%, grade A-, #5 of 218 statewide, top 2%, 697 students, 24% FRL); Mandeville High School (math 59% / reading 63%, grade C+, #19 of 265 statewide, top 7%, 2,259 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Tammany Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 126d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $239k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?