16 Caribbean Ct #16 · Mandeville, LA 70448

$239,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,067 sqft · Condo · 202 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition $116/sqft · 25% below area Est $320k · 25% under · waterfront $540/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Commuters dream! Just off the Causeway Bridge and in walking distance to the lakefront and all that Mandeville has to offer for shopping, dinning and entertainment, along with being in high demand school district. This condo has been completely updated and offers three bedrooms and two full baths with two half baths. The first floor is open and inviting with a soaring stone fireplace and hearth. The kitchen has stainless appliances, new custom cabinetry, granite counter tops, and updated lighting fixtures. Upstairs, you will find three spacious bedrooms. The Primary suit has an on suite bath with a separate soaking tub and walk in shower in neutral tones to suite most tastes. This home has a garage and a ton of storage space! New Hot water Heater! Garage floor is sealed & coated. The back yard is enclosed in a fence. Great for investors as well as owner occupants! Currently leased and occupied, so advanced notice to show is requested.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Stainless appliances
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKEFRONT
• HIGH DEMAND SCHOOL DISTRICT
• SOARING STONE FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandeville Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #35 of 646 statewide, top 5%, 551 students, 29% FRL); Tchefuncte Middle School (math 65% / reading 71%, grade A-, #5 of 218 statewide, top 2%, 697 students, 24% FRL); Mandeville High School (math 59% / reading 63%, grade C+, #19 of 265 statewide, top 7%, 2,259 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Tammany Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $239k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,134 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,918
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -25.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-68,599
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-108,687
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70448

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$540
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,774

Max offer price $180,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-242	-5% $-324	+0% $-407	+5% $-489	+10% $-572
Rent	-10% $-585	-5% $-496	+0% $-407	+5% $-318	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-346	base $-407	+0.5pp $-469	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Caribbean Ct Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	1600	$3,225	$2.02	81d	1	0.02mi
203 Tops L Dr #203 Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	1750	$1,650	$0.94	139d	1	0.13mi
705 Tops L Dr Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	1783	$1,700	$0.95	71d	1	0.14mi
409 Tops L Dr Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	1783	$1,700	$0.95	4d	1	0.15mi
409 Tops L Dr Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	1783	$1,700	$0.95	71d	1	0.15mi
539 Barbara Pl Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,800	$1.27	139d	1	0.33mi
225 Magnolia St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	81d	1	0.57mi
133 Louise Dr Mandeville, LA	4.0	3.0	2683	$3,500	$1.30	93d	1	0.74mi
611 Magnolia Ridge Dr E Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,850	$1.34	139d	1	0.75mi
480 Laura Dr N Mandeville, LA	4.0	3.0	2603	$4,200	$1.61	10d	1	0.77mi
1207 Rue Renoir Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	2041	$2,700	$1.32	139d	1	0.87mi
100 Oak Aly Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1692	$2,590	$1.53	85d	1	0.92mi
110 Oak Aly Mandeville, LA	4.0	3.5	2100	$2,750	$1.31	139d	1	0.92mi
125 Leah Dr Mandeville, LA	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,900	$1.38	99d	1	0.93mi
709 Carondelet St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,500	$1.57	81d	1	1.01mi
575 Wilkinson St Mandeville, LA	2.0	2.5	2156	$3,200	$1.48	139d	1	1.08mi
518 Ramon St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,500	$1.04	75d	1	1.10mi
518 Ramon St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,550	$1.07	107d	1	1.10mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	139d	1	1.13mi
565 Ramon St Unit A Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	107d	1	1.13mi
215 Elmwood St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	63d	1	1.15mi
127 Oakwood Dr Mandeville, LA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	139d	1	1.16mi
109 Walnut St Mandeville, LA	3.0	3.0	1597	$2,100	$1.31	119d	1	1.27mi
203 Driftwood St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,900	$1.12	10d	1	1.29mi
121 Chestnut St Mandeville, LA	3.0	2.0	1943	$1,975	$1.02	88d	1	1.32mi
100 Saint Ann Dr Mandeville, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1112	$2,008	$1.80	0d	17	1.37mi

HOA detail $540/mo · $6,480/yr condo

• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $239,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $239,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $239,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $239,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $239,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $239,000 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 172 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 171 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 170 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 169 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $239,000 Active 168 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $239,000 Active 167 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 166 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 165 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 164 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 163 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 162 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 161 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $239,000 Active 160 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $239,000 Active 159 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $239,000 Active 158 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 157 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 156 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 155 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 154 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 153 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 152 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 151 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 148 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 146 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 145 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − HOA: −$6,480
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$8,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,335–$31,005 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is in excellent condition, with good curb appeal and a fresh interior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal needed repairs and updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale New lighting fixtures in bathrooms — Enhances the aesthetic appeal and can increase resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mandeville Elementary School B+ LA #35/646 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Mandeville Junior High School B+ LA #9/218 Nat'l #1,362/14,009 High Mandeville High School C+ LA #19/265 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Mandeville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandeville, LA
• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 286,725 people
• City population: 50,537
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 26,338
• Household income: $95,682
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.97%
• Current HPI: 179.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+61.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $245,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-05 Listed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $244,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $244,900 GSREIN
• 2025-08-13 Listed $249,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-09 Rental Removed $1,975 GSREIN
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $239,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $1,975 GSREIN
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $239,900 GSREIN
• 2025-01-29 Listed for Rent $2,000 GSREIN
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $246,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $246,500 GSREIN
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $244,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $244,900 GSREIN
• 2024-12-06 Listed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $246,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $246,900 GSREIN
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $248,900 GSREIN
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $249,900 GSREIN
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $257,400 GSREIN
• 2024-08-09 Listed $248,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $139,600 GSREIN
• 2024-05-11 Pending — GSREIN
• 2024-04-29 Listed $144,600 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listed $144,600 GSREIN
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $152,200 GSREIN
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $160,200 GSREIN
• 2023-12-11 Listed $152,200 AcadianaMLS