23 Bell Cr Cir

Silver Bay, MN 55614

$138,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,294/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#217 in MN, #4,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.