23 Bell Cr Cir · Silver Bay, MN 55614

$138,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1952 10,019 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, 2 bedroom home in Silver Bay! Walk in to the front entryway and hang your coat in the entry closet then into the bright, spacious kitchen with small dining area, on into the living room with plenty of sunlight pouring in. Also on the main floor is a full bath and 2 bedrooms all ready for you to furnish and make your own. .. .all flooring and carpet on the main floor are new! Walk downstairs to the open, dry basement with laundry and utility area , a clean slate for. you to finish. Small deck on the back that faces the large back yard. .. The garage is in good shape. Make your appt to see this home and move in just in time to enjoy the spring/summer season!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Entryway
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• ENTRYWAY
• ENTRY CLOSET
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM
• FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#217 in MN, #4,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,047 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,275
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: -3.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Bell Cr Cir	0.04mi	2/1.0	725 (-7%)	7mo	$120,000	$166	81
66 Banks Blvd	0.36mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	4mo	$117,000	$152	78
36 Adams Blvd	0.24mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	13mo	$170,000	$221	76
36 Aiken Cr Cir	0.16mi	2/1.0	864 (+11%)	2mo	$130,000	$150	73
11 Charles Crk	0.26mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	23mo	$145,000	$189	66
88 Banks Blvd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+11%)	0mo	$105,000	$122	51
31 Charles Cr Cir	0.37mi	2/1.0	864 (+11%)	18mo	$145,000	$168	50
33 Charles Crk	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+11%)	14mo	$145,000	$168	47
52 Burk Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+11%)	23mo	$153,000	$177	46
51 Davis Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+11%)	3mo	$107,500	$124	44
12 Dodge Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0	864 (+11%)	18mo	$141,000	$163	41
10 Drake Cr Cir	0.56mi	2/1.0	864 (+11%)	23mo	$150,000	$174	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $62,991
• Equity at exit: $124,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $195,087
• Equity at exit: $268,104

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55614

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,930/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $104,233

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $142,000 Active 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Move in ready, 2 bedroom home in Silver Bay! Walk in to the front entryway and hang your coat in the entry closet then into the bright, spacious kitchen with small dining area, on into the living room with plenty of sunlight pouring in. Also on the main floor is a full bath and 2 bedrooms all ready for you to furnish and make your own. .. .all flooring and carpet on the main floor are new! Walk downstairs to the open, dry basement with laundry and utility area , a clean slate for. you to finish. Small deck on the back that faces the large back yard. .. The garage is in good shape. Make your appt to see this home and move in just in time to enjoy the spring/summer season!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,930
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$4,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Silver Bay

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #4547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Bay, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,450

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.26%
• Current HPI: 490.17
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $142,000 LSAR

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,930 · +294.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.