1003 Woullard Way #1

Sevierville, TN 37876

$272,750D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,430
• Tax + insurance: −$455
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-640/mo
• Annual: $-7,686/yr
• Cap rate: 3.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.06%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $76,370

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (39.4% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#323 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.6% in Sevierville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?