309 S Market St

Union City, OH 45390

$158,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-173/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-173/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mississinawa Valley Local (rural): math 56% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #405 of 656 in OH (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mississinawa Valley Elementary School (math 56% / reading 49%, grade C-, #846 of 1,584 statewide, top 54%, 316 students, 99% FRL); Mississinawa Valley Jr/Sr High School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #275 of 781 statewide, top 37%, 280 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 70% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Darke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Darke County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $158k implies a 407% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.