127 W 123rd St Unit TH

New York, NY 10027

$2,950,000D-

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,285 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax + insurance: −$4,917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,139
• Net cashflow: $-16,102/mo
• Annual: $-193,227/yr
• Cap rate: -0.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.39%
• DSCR: -0.04
• 1% rule: 0.18%
• Cash to close: $826,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath multifamily listed at $2.95M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16k ($-193k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $620k (79.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $542k (81.6% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $542k (81.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.3% vs local median 2.7% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $5,423/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 82% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?