127 W 123rd St Unit TH · New York, NY 10027

$2,950,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,285 sqft · MultiFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 1910 Good condition $688/sqft · 17% below area Est $3.536M · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 127 West 123rd Street, an expansive two-family townhouse in the heart of South Harlem offering: space, flexibility, and exceptional outdoor living. Spanning approximately 3,585 square feet plus a cellar for a total of 4,285 SF, along with 1,308 SF of outdoor space. It offers multiple options for an end user, including the opportunity to live in a move-in-ready single-family mansion, and have a suburban-sized home in a beautiful Manhattan neighborhood, or as an investment property generating income by renting the upper floors. As you enter, you are welcomed into a spacious triplex.

Key facts

• Finished cellar
• Balcony with access
• Private backyard

Tags

• TWO FAMILY TOWNHOUSE
• FINISHED CELLAR
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• BALCONY WITH ACCESS
• FLOOR THROUGH ONE BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath multifamily listed at $2.95M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16k ($-193k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $620k (79.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $542k (81.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $542k (81.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.3% vs local median 2.7% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,423/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $542,349 (81.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 82% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.18% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.39%
• DSCR: -0.04
• GRM: 45.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,535,560
• List price: $2,950,000
• Delta: -16.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Bradhurst Ave	1.11mi	5/4.0	3,815 (-11%)	9mo	$1,800,000	$472	38
2056 Madison Ave	0.48mi	6/7.0 (+1)	5,022 (+17%)	2mo	$900,000	$179	35
17 Convent Ave #31	0.50mi	5/5.5	5,221 (+22%)	20mo	$2,400,000	$460	31
330 E 100th St Apt 3A	1.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,444 (-20%)	16mo	$860,000	$250	17
30 W 141st St Unit 7E	0.89mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,328 (-22%)	20mo	$245,000	$74	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.26% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-1,283,598
• Equity at exit: $675,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -1.71×
• Total profit: $-2,239,193
• Equity at exit: $678,554

Cash invested: $826,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $2,500,000 ($579/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 89% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +42.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 10027

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 45.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,688 /mo · $44,250/yr
• Insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,139
• Net cashflow: $-16,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $25,806

Max offer price $619,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14,064	-5% $-15,083	+0% $-16,102	+5% $-17,122	+10% $-18,141
Rent	-10% $-16,531	-5% $-16,316	+0% $-16,102	+5% $-15,888	+10% $-15,674
Rate	-1.0pp $-14,617	-0.5pp $-15,352	base $-16,102	+0.5pp $-16,867	+1.0pp $-17,644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $737,500
• Closing costs: $88,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 W 123rd St New York, NY	2.0	2.0	—	$6,250	—	74d	1	0.04mi
142 W 124th St Unit 1424340P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$6,761	—	25d	1	0.04mi
120 W 124th St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$6,650	—	74d	1	0.06mi
118 W 124th St #1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$6,200	—	74d	1	0.06mi
2071 Adam Clayton Powell Junior Blvd Unit 2 New York, NY	4.0	2.0	1000	$5,995	$6.00	68d	1	0.07mi
257 Malcolm X Blvd Unit 1424336P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$6,591	—	27d	1	0.07mi
257 Malcolm X Blvd New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	—	$7,095	—	4d	2	0.07mi
221 Malcolm X Blvd Unit 1424338P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$6,995	—	27d	1	0.12mi
286 Malcolm X Blvd Unit 1424337P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$6,648	—	29d	1	0.13mi
60 W 125th St New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$5,675	—	14d	1	0.19mi
230 W 126th St Unit 20C New York, NY	2.0	1.0	860	$4,555	$5.30	74d	1	0.22mi
2235 Frederick Douglass Blvd New York, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$5,200	$4.73	8d	1	0.29mi
12 W 127th St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	3.5	1899	$8,999	$4.74	74d	1	0.31mi
312 W 121st St Unit 5-A New York, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$4,655	$5.82	61d	1	0.33mi
508 Manhattan Ave Unit 2C New York, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$4,699	$5.87	61d	1	0.33mi
312 W 121st St Unit 4C New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$4,854	$5.39	57d	1	0.33mi
506 Manhattan Ave Unit 1A New York, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$4,699	$5.87	61d	1	0.34mi
496 Manhattan Ave Unit 4-A New York, NY	4.0	2.0	1200	$5,588	$4.66	16d	1	0.35mi
301 W 118th St Unit 119 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$5,900	—	74d	1	0.36mi
301 W 118th St Unit 314 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$4,800	—	74d	1	0.36mi
285 Saint Nicholas Ave New York, NY	4.0	1.0	—	$5,000	—	74d	1	0.36mi
345 W 123rd St Unit 1514683P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$7,177	—	55d	1	0.37mi
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,150	$3.08	67d	1	0.40mi
114 W 131st St Apt 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,750	$3.38	74d	1	0.40mi
4 St Nicholas Ter Unit 07 New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$5,350	—	18d	1	0.43mi
4 Saint Nicholas Ter Unit 2 New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$5,500	—	36d	1	0.43mi
4 St Nicholas Ter Unit 07 New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$5,250	—	57d	1	0.43mi
4 Saint Nicholas Ter New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$6,000	—	1d	1	0.43mi
4 Saint Nicholas Ter New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$5,350	—	14d	1	0.43mi
4 Saint Nicholas Ter New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$5,500	—	16d	1	0.43mi
2149 Frederick Douglass Blvd Unit 3A New York, NY	2.0	1.0	14803	$4,795	$0.32	38d	1	0.45mi
261 W 131st St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$7,000	$2.92	74d	1	0.47mi
61 Malcolm X Blvd New York, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$4,795	$3.69	74d	1	0.49mi
245 W 113th St Unit 6C New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$7,500	—	14d	1	0.51mi
245 W 113th St Unit 1351250P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$7,476	—	57d	1	0.51mi
245 W 113th St Unit 1061658P New York, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	—	$8,290	—	28d	2	0.52mi
245 W 113th St New York, NY	4.0	2.0	—	$4,950	—	14d	1	0.52mi
245 W 113th St New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$7,500	—	63d	1	0.52mi
350 Manhattan Ave New York, NY	4.0	1.0	—	$5,400	—	63d	1	0.53mi
118 E 124th St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	—	$6,900	—	74d	1	0.53mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property contains 2 total units (multi-unit)
• Financial info: Pets are not allowed in the building
• HOA & community: HOA/association fee is charged monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Utilities details limited to heating; other utility details not provided
• Home design: Townhouse unit (Unit TH)Entry level 13 stories within the unit; building has 5 stories
• Construction: Basement: Full
• Exterior features: BalconyTerraceBuilding roof deckPrivate entrancePrivate outdoor space over 60 sqftPrivate yardHas viewNorth and South exposures

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 13 rooms (includes bedrooms) — unit-level details not provided
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Wet barBuilt-in featuresCrown moldingHigh ceilingsBarUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundrySee remarks for additional laundry details

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-07-02
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-07-01
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-30
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-29
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-28
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-27
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-26
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-24
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-22
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-21
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-18
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-17
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-16
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-15
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-06-10
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 43 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 42 DOM
21. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 40 DOM
22. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 39 DOM
23. 2026-04-22
    listed $2,950,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$165,246
• − Property taxes: −$44,250
• − Insurance: −$14,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,207
• − Management: −$5,207
• − Depreciation: −$85,818
• Taxable loss: −$255,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-131,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $21,425–$64,275 screening

This two-family townhouse in South Harlem is in good condition with a spacious triplex layout and a private backyard. It offers a move-in-ready single-family mansion and a suburban-sized home in a beautiful Manhattan neighborhood, or as an investment property generating income by renting the upper floors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping the backyard — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Painting the exterior walls — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

A Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brooklyn Brownstone School A NY #289/2,108 Nat'l #2,065/41,679 Middle Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented A+ NY #6/729 Nat'l #25/14,009 High Acad-Scholarship & Entrepreneurship B+ NY #677/1,100 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,825,725 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 63,885
• Household income: $59,587
• Rent vs Own: 82.6% rent · 17.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 33% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 24% Asian 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.26%
• Current HPI: 414.8385
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property contains 2 total units (multi-unit)
• Financial info: Pets are not allowed in the building
• HOA & community: HOA/association fee is charged monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Utilities details limited to heating; other utility details not provided
• Home design: Townhouse unit (Unit TH)Entry level 13 stories within the unit; building has 5 stories
• Construction: Basement: Full
• Exterior features: BalconyTerraceBuilding roof deckPrivate entrancePrivate outdoor space over 60 sqftPrivate yardHas viewNorth and South exposures

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 13 rooms (includes bedrooms) — unit-level details not provided
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Wet barBuilt-in featuresCrown moldingHigh ceilingsBarUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundrySee remarks for additional laundry details

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $2,950,000 RLS at REBNY