Clayton 182 River Valley Estates Plan

Marion, OH 43302

$137,695D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$722
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-270/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $38,555

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-270/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 64% / reading 70%, grade B+, #456 of 1,584 statewide, top 31%, 495 students, 28% FRL); River Valley Middle School (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #297 of 654 statewide, top 46%, 453 students, 40% FRL); River Valley High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #303 of 781 statewide, top 42%, 517 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.