Clayton 182 River Valley Estates Plan · Marion, OH 43302

$137,695

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 228 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coming Soon. Be the very first to live in this stunning 2025 Clayton home, perfectly situated in a peaceful and quiet community just north of the city of Marion. The heart of the home is a fully funtional, chef ready kitchen featuring brand new appliances, including: A refrigerator, A gas stove, A built in microwave and A dishwasher, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spaucious and modern living and a added wrap around deck. Please call River Valley Estates office for more information.

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• Wrap around deck
• Chef ready kitchen

Tags

• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• WRAP AROUND DECK

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-270/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 64% / reading 70%, grade B+, #456 of 1,584 statewide, top 31%, 495 students, 28% FRL); River Valley Middle School (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #297 of 654 statewide, top 46%, 453 students, 40% FRL); River Valley High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #303 of 781 statewide, top 42%, 517 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,607 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-23,727
• Equity at exit: $20,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,433
• Equity at exit: $11,905

Cash invested: $38,555 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$722
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $134,442

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $25	+0% $-22	+5% $-70	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-69	+0% $-22	+5% $24	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $13	base $-22	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,424
• Closing costs: $4,131
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,695 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $137,695 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,466 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,466 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,466 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,466 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,466 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,466 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,466 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,466 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,466 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,466 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,466 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,466 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,466 Active 206 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,466 Active 205 DOM
17. 2025-11-07
    listed $159,466 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Coming Soon. Be the very first to live in this stunning 2025 Clayton home, perfectly situated in a peaceful and quiet community just north of the city of Marion. The heart of the home is a fully funtional, chef ready kitchen featuring brand new appliances, including: A refrigerator, A gas stove, A built in microwave and A dishwasher, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spaucious and modern living and a added wrap around deck. Please call River Valley Estates office for more information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,713
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$4,006
• Taxable loss: −$2,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2025 Clayton home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Valley Local
• NCES district ID: 3904844
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,645
• Composite: 52.44/100
• National rank: #1574
• State rank: #264 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-07 Listed $159,466 Zillow