7 Fox Hollow Rd

Shelter Island, NY 11964

$1,875,000A-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,038 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $26,006/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax + insurance: −$1,313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,461
• Net cashflow: $9,399/mo
• Annual: $112,785/yr
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.48%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $525,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.88M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $1.88M).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.71M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#998 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $774k; list at $1.88M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$127k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.