7 Fox Hollow Rd · Shelter Island, NY 11964

$1,875,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1991 1.20 ac lot $617/sqft · 23% below area Est $2432k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHELTER ISLAND CLASSIC MODERN ELEGANCE Tucked on a quiet lane with views of preserved forest and a native lowland glade, this three-story contemporary home was cleverly designed with thought to its hillside setting and natural light. Its clean lines and layout take inspiration from the modernist tradition-most notably, from architect Leonard Parker's summer home in Minnetonka, Minnesota. Parker, a collaborator in Eero Saarinen's studio and project architect for the Gateway Arch in St. Louis, brought a graceful balance of form and function to his work, echoed here in the home's serene geometry and open interiors. The entry is marked by stained glass panels that catch the sun, like paintings, their soft color mirrored in the stairwell's pendant lighting. Inside, the living room rises with double-height ceilings and a Scandinavian wood-burning stove placed in the corner where two windowed walls meet, bringing in the landscape from every angle. Cherry flooring grounds the open plan, which includes dining and a galley-style kitchen, leading to a cheerful breakfast nook. Doors open to a wraparound veranda, an easy extension of the living space into the open air. The main level also features a spacious en-suite bedroom with an updated bath, a dressing area, and its own access to the veranda. Above, a loft-style library and media room overlooks the living space below. The lower level, situated at grade, includes two guest rooms, a full bath, laundry area, and a second veranda, along with a two-car garage. Partial house generator. Located near South Ferry, Wades Beach, and a nearby nature preserve, this home offers a peaceful setting with architectural roots in one of America's most storied design lineages-a place to slow the pace and settle into the rhythms of the landscape.

Key facts

• Stained glass panels
• Hillside setting
• Natural light

Tags

• THREE-STORY CONTEMPORARY HOME
• HILLSIDE SETTING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STAINED GLASS PANELS
• DOUBLE-HEIGHT CEILINGS
• OPEN PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.88M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $1.88M).
• Recommended offer: $1.71M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#998 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$127k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $774k; list at $1.88M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,706,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.48%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,431,589
• List price: $1,875,000
• Delta: -22.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Crescent Way	0.56mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (-8%)	20mo	$2,515,000	$898	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $723,478
• Equity at exit: $736,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $1,866,078
• Equity at exit: $1,058,011

Cash invested: $525,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11964

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,386/yr
• Insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,461
• Net cashflow: $9,399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,109

Max offer price $1,875,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $468,750
• Closing costs: $56,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Dogwood Ln Shelter Island, NY	4.0	2.0	2669	$14,400	$5.40	43d	1	0.23mi
47L S Ferry Rd Shelter Island, NY	4.0	3.5	3800	$50,000	$13.16	22d	1	0.34mi
42 N Menantic Rd Shelter Island, NY	4.0	2.5	2825	$7,500	$2.65	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,875,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $1,875,000 Active 1797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1797 chars)

    SHELTER ISLAND CLASSIC MODERN ELEGANCE Tucked on a quiet lane with views of preserved forest and a native lowland glade, this three-story contemporary home was cleverly designed with thought to its hillside setting and natural light. Its clean lines and layout take inspiration from the modernist tradition-most notably, from architect Leonard Parker's summer home in Minnetonka, Minnesota. Parker, a collaborator in Eero Saarinen's studio and project architect for the Gateway Arch in St. Louis, brought a graceful balance of form and function to his work, echoed here in the home's serene geometry and open interiors. The entry is marked by stained glass panels that catch the sun, like paintings, their soft color mirrored in the stairwell's pendant lighting. Inside, the living room rises with double-height ceilings and a Scandinavian wood-burning stove placed in the corner where two windowed walls meet, bringing in the landscape from every angle. Cherry flooring grounds the open plan, which includes dining and a galley-style kitchen, leading to a cheerful breakfast nook. Doors open to a wraparound veranda, an easy extension of the living space into the open air. The main level also features a spacious en-suite bedroom with an updated bath, a dressing area, and its own access to the veranda. Above, a loft-style library and media room overlooks the living space below. The lower level, situated at grade, includes two guest rooms, a full bath, laundry area, and a second veranda, along with a two-car garage. Partial house generator. Located near South Ferry, Wades Beach, and a nearby nature preserve, this home offers a peaceful setting with architectural roots in one of America's most storied design lineages-a place to slow the pace and settle into the rhythms of the landscape.

16. 2026-01-15
    historical
17. 2026-01-01
    status Active
18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-06-19
    listed $1,875,000 Active
20. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus $774,000
21. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $774,000
22. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $774,000 Closed
23. 2016-08-08
    status Under Contract
24. 2015-12-04
    listed $825,000 New
25. 2015-12-04
    listed $825,000
26. 2015-11-30
    historical
27. 2015-11-30
    listed $825,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,386 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,037 · $1,586/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,651/yr (+$1,054/mo · 198.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $312,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$105,029
• − Property taxes: −$6,386
• − Insurance: −$9,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,966
• − Management: −$24,966
• − Depreciation: −$54,545
• Taxable income: $86,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,833
• After-tax cash flow: $91,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelter Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3626640
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,456
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7365
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shelter Island

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #998
• US rank: #19481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelter Island, NY
• City population: 3,279
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Native American 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Romanian 5% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Current HPI: 476.2348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $1,875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Listed $1,875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $774,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $774,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $774,000 MLSLI
• 2016-08-08 Pending — MLSLI
• 2015-12-04 Listed $825,000 MLSLI
• 2015-12-04 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-30 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,386 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.