2 Jackson Hole Rd #5

Vernon, NJ 07462-6500

$189,900D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,017/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (15.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vernon Township High School (math 20% / reading 52%, grade F, #230 of 399 statewide, top 58%, 929 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.