2 Jackson Hole Rd #5 · Vernon, NJ 07462-6500

$189,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · Condo public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1983 $440/mo HOA · 21% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!! Great Gorge Village ; Gated, W/ 24 hr Security , Maintenance-Free Living in a Four-Season Resort Community. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 1- floor no entrance stairs ; 1bedroom condo offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle in the desirable Great Gorge Village ski area. The unit features one bedroom, living room, kitchen, and full bath . The deck provides the perfect space to relax after a day outdoors. Just a shortwalk to the community pool and ski trails, this location is ideal for year-round recreation. Conveniently close to the AAA four diamond luxury resort which was acquired by South Street Partners includes2 luxury hotels Minerals & Grand Cas

Key facts

• Private deck
• Community pool
• Gated

Tags

• GATED
• MAINTENANCE-FREE LIVING
• PRIVATE DECK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SKI TRAILS
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association covers common area maintenance, snow removal, and trash collection; Pets allowed; Community playground; Outdoor pool; Community living

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Additional parking; Blacktop driveway; Circular driveway; Common hard-surface parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available; Garbage included
• Home design: One-floor townhouse interior unit; First floor; Brown exterior
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Deck; Backs to parkland; Mountain view; Skyline view

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley-style kitchen; Kitchen exhaust fan; Range/Oven (gas); Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced hot air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds; Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (15.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vernon Township High School (math 20% / reading 52%, grade F, #230 of 399 statewide, top 58%, 929 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,211 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,520
• Equity at exit: $85,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $60,080
• Equity at exit: $131,592

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07462-6500

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,745/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $160,211

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Stonehill Dr #1 Vernon, NJ	2.0	1.0	748	$2,100	$2.81	43d	1	0.05mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $199,900 Active 886-char remark
18. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2020-04-30
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
20. 2020-03-24
    historical
21. 2020-03-01
    listed $70,000 Active
22. 2004-12-01
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,745 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,237 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,745
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416710
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $84,455
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6188
• State rank: #294 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon Center, NJ

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $189,900 GSMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $199,900 GSMLS
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 GSMLS
• 2020-03-24 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2020-03-01 Listed $70,000 GSMLS
• 2004-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,745 · +39.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.