38-3 Florence Tollgate Pl

Florence, NJ 08016

$104,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$719
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-223/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-223/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#255 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Florence Township School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #301 of 472 in NJ (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?