38-3 Florence Tollgate Pl · Florence, NJ 08016

$104,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Condo · 86 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $136/sqft · 13% below area Est $121k · 13% under $719/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING WITH UTILITIES INCLUDED! Beautifully updated first-floor condo in Florence Tollgate - perfect for buyers seeking simplicity, convenience and predictable monthly expenses! Unlike many properties, the HOA covers heat, water, trash, snow removal, and access to the pool (right across the street from this unit) plus access to a club house with staff on site several days a week. This significantly reduces out of pocket utility costs. Inside you'll find a modern kitchen with updated cabinetry, and in-unit washer and dryer. Bright living space, spacious bedroom with ample closet storage and a stylish bathroom with granite finishes. Located directly across the street from the clubhouse and pool, and just minutes from major roadways, shopping and more! Also offers strong rental potential for those seeking a low maintenance investment. (Some photos are virtually staged to illustrate the potential layout of the space).

Key facts

• Granite floors
• Ample closet storage
• Spacious bedroom

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE FLOORS
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• SPACIOUS BEDROOM
• AMPLE CLOSET STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-223/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#255 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Florence Township School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #301 of 472 in NJ (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,156
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -13.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-17,713
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-15,043
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$719
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $102,210

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $18	+0% $-19	+5% $-55	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-90	+0% $-19	+5% $53	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $8	base $-19	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Florence Tollgate Pl #4 Florence, NJ	2.0	1.0	960	$1,850	$1.93	15d	1	0.07mi
20 Florence Tollgate Pl #1 Florence, NJ	1.0	1.0	774	$1,800	$2.33	15d	1	0.08mi
5 Florence Tollgate Unit 7 Florence, NJ	2.0	1.5	960	$1,950	$2.03	5d	1	0.12mi
225 W 2nd St Florence, NJ	1.0	1.0	733	$674	$0.92	44d	1	0.62mi
1370 Hornberger Ave Unit A Roebling, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	44d	1	1.35mi
43 Main St Unit 2B Roebling, NJ	1.0	1.0	704	$1,650	$2.34	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $719 · $8,628/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsnow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $104,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $109,900 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING WITH UTILITIES INCLUDED! Beautifully updated first-floor condo in Florence Tollgate - perfect for buyers seeking simplicity, convenience and predictable monthly expenses! Unlike many properties, the HOA covers heat, water, trash, snow removal, and access to the pool (right across the street from this unit) plus access to a club house with staff on site several days a week. This significantly reduces out of pocket utility costs. Inside you'll find a modern kitchen with updated cabinetry, and in-unit washer and dryer. Bright living space, spacious bedroom with ample closet storage and a stylish bathroom with granite finishes. Located directly across the street from the clubhouse and pool, and just minutes from major roadways, shopping and more! Also offers strong rental potential for those seeking a low maintenance investment. (Some photos are virtually staged to illustrate the potential layout of the space).

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $124,900 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING WITH UTILITIES INCLUDED! Beautifully updated first-floor condo in Florence Tollgate - perfect for buyers seeking simplicity, convenience and predictable monthly expenses! Unlike many properties, the HOA covers heat, water, trash, snow removal, and access to the pool (right across the street from this unit) plus access to a club house with staff on site several days a week. This significantly reduces out of pocket utility costs. Inside you'll find a modern kitchen with updated cabinetry, and in-unit washer and dryer. Bright living space, spacious bedroom with ample closet storage and a stylish bathroom with granite finishes. Located directly across the street from the clubhouse and pool, and just minutes from major roadways, shopping and more! Also offers strong rental potential for those seeking a low maintenance investment. (Some photos are virtually staged to illustrate the potential layout of the space).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$8,628
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$1,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, updated condo is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a low-maintenance living experience with utilities included, making it an attractive option for buyers seeking simplicity and convenience.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal
• Both Re-carpeting bedrooms — Enhances comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Re-carpeting bedrooms — Enhances comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3405220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,044
• Composite: 30.34/100
• National rank: #6266
• State rank: #301 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #7317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, NJ
• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• City population: 5,830
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS