154 Cripple Creek Rd

Wytheville, VA 24382

$55,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,567/yr
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• 1% rule: 2.58%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#116 in VA, #3,571 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wythe County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 131 in VA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sheffey Elementary (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 243 students, 74% FRL); Scott Memorial Middle (math 73% / reading 79%, grade A, #42 of 342 statewide, top 13%, 318 students, 73% FRL); George Wythe High (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 462 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Wythe County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wythe County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.3% in Wytheville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.