154 Cripple Creek Rd · Wytheville, VA 24382

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1950 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Great opportunity for renovation or rental potential. Property is being sold as-is. Bring your vision and make it your own.

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.3% in Wytheville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#116 in VA, #3,571 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wythe County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 131 in VA (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sheffey Elementary (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 243 students, 74% FRL); Scott Memorial Middle (math 73% / reading 79%, grade A, #42 of 342 statewide, top 13%, 318 students, 73% FRL); George Wythe High (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 462 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Wythe County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wythe County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $20,825
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $56,958
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24382

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $833

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$4/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$4,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $4,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wythe County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104110
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,665
• Composite: 60.19/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #20 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wytheville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #3571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,751
• Population (ZIP): 14,751

Population outlook (Wythe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,176 people
• By 2030: 28,993 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 28,273 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 27,055 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 23,668 · -18.9%
• By 2100: 18,904 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wythe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.9% · R 79.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.8pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+54.9 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+32.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.18%
• Current HPI: 191.6387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $55,000 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.