425 E Walnut St

Oneida, NY 13421

$70,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$704
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $971/yr
• Cap rate: 14.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.07%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 2.08%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#924 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Oneida City School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #421 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $70k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.0% in Oneida — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.