425 E Walnut St · Oneida, NY 13421

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a starter home or to downsize? Here it is! The downstairs was remodeled and the upstairs is waiting on you to finish it however you would like. Call today for a viewing!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.0% in Oneida — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#924 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Oneida City School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #421 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $70k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.07%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,288
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
448 E Walnut St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+12%)	15mo	$155,000	$118	65
118 Lake St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-2%)	12mo	$159,000	$138	62
207 E Elm St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,186 (+1%)	10mo	$115,000	$97	57
330 Seneca St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+5%)	6mo	$180,000	$146	56
3840 W 11th St	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (+1%)	11mo	$250,751	$210	52
79 State St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-5%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	50
252 Lake St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-5%)	18mo	$10,000	$9	43
212 N Broad St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+12%)	8mo	$190,000	$145	43
4642 State St	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,215 (+3%)	18mo	$130,000	$107	38
106 E Sands St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,090 (-7%)	22mo	$152,000	$139	36
3884 Sconondoa Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-8%)	21mo	$95,000	$88	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-5,804
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,141
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13421

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,980/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $101	+0% $81	+5% $61	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $23	+0% $81	+5% $139	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $99	base $81	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $70,000 Active
4. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-05
   historical
6. 2025-12-09
   price $70,000
7. 2025-09-30
   price $80,000
8. 2025-08-28
   listed $88,000 Active
9. 1995-03-09
   soldstatus $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,980
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$71
• After-tax cash flow: $901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oneida City School District
• NCES district ID: 3600013
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,791
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3568
• State rank: #421 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oneida

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #924
• US rank: #18033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oneida, NY
• City population: 12,742
• Population (ZIP): 12,742

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.30%
• Current HPI: 248.3909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $70,000 CNYIS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $70,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $80,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $88,000 CNYIS
• 1995-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,980 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.