302 Nogal St

Los Fresnos, TX 78566

$205,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,097/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#327 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?