302 Nogal St · Los Fresnos, TX 78566

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1974 10,624 sqft lot $89/sqft · 27% below area Est $280k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming frame home located in the desirable Los Fresnos School District. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath property offers flexible living space to fit your needs. The bonus room features its own private entrance and is perfect for a second living area, spacious home office, or potential 4th bedroom. The home includes central air and heat for year round comfort, a convenient 2 car carport, and sits on a corner lot with a chain link fence for added functionality. A great opportunity for homeowners and investors alike. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Central air and heat
• Bonus room
• Private entrance

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• CENTRAL AIR AND HEAT
• CORNER LOT
• CHAIN LINK FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#327 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,132 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,897
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -26.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 E Resaca Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,103 (-9%)	12mo	$345,000	$164	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $45,558
• Equity at exit: $126,045

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $143,767
• Equity at exit: $226,175

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78566

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,587/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $174,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-117	+0% $-175	+5% $-233	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-247	+0% $-175	+5% $-102	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-123	base $-175	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32936 Samuel Rd Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	3.0	2156	$2,000	$0.93	44d	1	0.77mi
127 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	22d	1	0.78mi
129 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	2.0	2.5	1670	$1,550	$0.93	44d	1	0.78mi
110 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1975	$1,700	$0.86	44d	1	0.81mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,750	$0.98	14d	1	0.84mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,650	$0.92	44d	1	0.84mi
123 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	14d	1	0.85mi
518 Oriole Dr Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	2206	$2,900	$1.31	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-02-23
    listed $205,000 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Charming frame home located in the desirable Los Fresnos School District. This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath property offers flexible living space to fit your needs. The bonus room features its own private entrance and is perfect for a second living area, spacious home office, or potential 4th bedroom. The home includes central air and heat for year round comfort, a convenient 2 car carport, and sits on a corner lot with a chain link fence for added functionality. A great opportunity for homeowners and investors alike. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus
20. 1994-09-06
    soldstatus
21. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,587 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,587 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$5,587
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Los Fresnos

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #7193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Fresnos, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,927

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Current HPI: 218.1236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $205,000 RGVMLS
• 2006-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,587 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.