125 Chelsea Dr. #28 #328

Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$139,500C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$452
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $164/mo
• Annual: $1,967/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $39,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $299 of equity ($964 loan paydown + $-665 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.