125 Chelsea Dr. #28 #328 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$139,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Townhouse · 73 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $125/sqft · 62% above area $452/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAKEVIEW Garden level located in Cliffside condo complex. This condo has a view of Greers Ferry lake and the mountain vista. Beautiful ans clean. Be sure to notice the custom sun-filtering shades that easily adjust!! Two large bedrooms that will accommodate King beds or 2 Queens, 2 bathrooms. Enjoy the wrap-around rear deck with a lake view! This condo can be your perfect lake getaway, or to use as a short-term rental property. Located close to the cool pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, mini golf, bowling, golf, hiking trails, four-wheeler trails and so much more. Call today for your private tour. Appointment required due to rental guests. Furniture is included, so it’s ready to go!!. Agent Remarks

Key facts

• Lake view
• Updated kitchen
• Tile flooring

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $299 of equity ($964 loan paydown + $-665 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $131,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,164
• List price: $139,500
• Delta: 61.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Chelsea #30	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	19mo	$140,000	$125	81
125 Chelsea Dr #33	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+3%)	10mo	$185,000	$160	80
104 Chelsea Dr #42	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,066 (-5%)	14mo	$99,000	$93	74
135 Hillview Dr #101	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	1mo	$75,000	$67	68
135 Hillview Dr #116	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	2mo	$98,000	$88	67
135 Hillview Dr #6	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,133 (+1%)	8mo	$98,000	$86	60
135 Hillview #52	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	14mo	$89,000	$80	57
135 Hillview #32	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	18mo	$68,000	$61	54
135 Hillview Dr #121	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	19mo	$118,000	$106	53
135 Hillview Dr #82	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,179 (+5%)	10mo	$79,900	$68	52
120 Shorthaven Ln	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,102 (-2%)	13mo	$125,000	$113	51
118 Richwood Dr #49	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$66	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,575
• Equity at exit: $37,215

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $32,690
• Equity at exit: $42,186

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$452
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $452 · $5,424/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,500 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,500 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    listed $139,500 New Listing 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    LAKEVIEW Garden level located in Cliffside condo complex. This condo has a view of Greers Ferry lake and the mountain vista. Beautiful ans clean. Be sure to notice the custom sun-filtering shades that easily adjust!! Two large bedrooms that will accommodate King beds or 2 Queens, 2 bathrooms. Enjoy the wrap-around rear deck with a lake view! This condo can be your perfect lake getaway, or to use as a short-term rental property. Located close to the cool pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, mini golf, bowling, golf, hiking trails, four-wheeler trails and so much more. Call today for your private tour. Appointment required due to rental guests. Furniture is included, so it’s ready to go!!. Agent Remarks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$5,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $74
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $1,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This condo is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and a great view of the lake and mountains. The interior needs some touch-ups and a fresh coat of paint to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale value.
• Both Replace the carpet — Replacing the carpet can improve the overall appearance and comfort of the living space, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean the windows — Cleaning the windows can improve the natural light and increase the overall appeal of the home, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale value. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet — Replacing the carpet can improve the overall appearance and comfort of the living space, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean the windows — Cleaning the windows can improve the natural light and increase the overall appeal of the home, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $139,500 CARMLS