97 Cantabrook St

Florin, CA 95828

$219,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,826/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Florin Elementary (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 494 students, 64% FRL); James Rutter Middle (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 847 students, 65% FRL); Florin High (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #602 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,676 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Elk Grove Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.