3 Woods Rd

West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$2,500,000C+

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,599 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $83,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax + insurance: −$3,083
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$17,512
• Net cashflow: $49,686/mo
• Annual: $596,235/yr
• Cap rate: 30.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.18%
• DSCR: 4.79
• 1% rule: 3.34%
• Cash to close: $700,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50k ($596k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($83k rent vs $2.50M).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.27M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $558k; list at $2.50M implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.0% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.