3 Woods Rd · West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$2,500,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1971 1.03 ac lot Est $1900k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning spacious contemporary on beautiful neighborhood street. An acre of picturesque grounds. Large rooms & open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. First level highlighted by huge kitchen w/ granite, living room, family room & study w/ hardwood floors, a home office, & sun room that looks out upon the backyard oasis w/ landscaped patio & gazebo. Upstairs master BR has vaulted ceilings & skylights. Three other bedrooms, one w/ full bath attached. Full finished basement w/ bathroom.

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 3599

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; Multiple stories (rooms listed on first and second levels)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (listed; several on second level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Marble; Wood
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: 2-zone heating; Central air with 2-zone AC
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Light fixtures; Garage door opener; Gas cooking; Fireplace (1); Finished, full, heated basement with high ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50k ($596k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($83k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.27M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.0% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $558k; list at $2.50M implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,275,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.18%
• DSCR: 4.79
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,900,272
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Muncy Dr	0.27mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,542 (-2%)	3mo	$1,610,000	$455	73
5 Woods Rd	0.03mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,178 (-12%)	9mo	$1,410,000	$444	59
499 Wall St	0.35mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,269 (-9%)	7mo	$1,725,000	$528	52
22 Muncy Dr	0.39mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,105 (-14%)	7mo	$1,700,000	$548	44
32 Musket Ln	0.55mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,127 (-13%)	9mo	$2,300,000	$736	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $2,760,029
• Equity at exit: $372,758

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.26×
• Total profit: $6,480,648
• Equity at exit: $216,154

Cash invested: $700,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07764

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $83,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax from tax record: −$2,041 /mo · $24,496/yr
• Insurance: −$1,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$17,512
• Net cashflow: $49,686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,498

Max offer price $2,500,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $625,000
• Closing costs: $75,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Muncy Dr West Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	4347	$99,000	$22.77	22d	1	0.34mi
58 Georgetown Rd Eatontown, NJ	5.0	4.0	3665	$57,000	$15.55	22d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $2,500,000 Active
16. 2025-07-02
    listed $2,700,000 Active
17. 2015-10-27
    soldstatus $557,500
18. 2015-10-21
    soldstatus $557,500 Sold 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Stunning spacious contemporary on beautiful neighborhood street. An acre of picturesque grounds. Large rooms & open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. First level highlighted by huge kitchen w/ granite, living room, family room & study w/ hardwood floors, a home office, & sun room that looks out upon the backyard oasis w/ landscaped patio & gazebo. Upstairs master BR has vaulted ceilings & skylights. Three other bedrooms, one w/ full bath attached. Full finished basement w/ bathroom.

19. 2015-10-13
    historical 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Stunning spacious contemporary on beautiful neighborhood street. An acre of picturesque grounds. Large rooms & open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. First level highlighted by huge kitchen w/ granite, living room, family room & study w/ hardwood floors, a home office, & sun room that looks out upon the backyard oasis w/ landscaped patio & gazebo. Upstairs master BR has vaulted ceilings & skylights. Three other bedrooms, one w/ full bath attached. Full finished basement w/ bathroom.

20. 2015-03-31
    price $625,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Stunning spacious contemporary on beautiful neighborhood street. An acre of picturesque grounds. Large rooms & open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. First level highlighted by huge kitchen w/ granite, living room, family room & study w/ hardwood floors, a home office, & sun room that looks out upon the backyard oasis w/ landscaped patio & gazebo. Upstairs master BR has vaulted ceilings & skylights. Three other bedrooms, one w/ full bath attached. Full finished basement w/ bathroom.

21. 2014-12-12
    listed $650,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Stunning spacious contemporary on beautiful neighborhood street. An acre of picturesque grounds. Large rooms & open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. First level highlighted by huge kitchen w/ granite, living room, family room & study w/ hardwood floors, a home office, & sun room that looks out upon the backyard oasis w/ landscaped patio & gazebo. Upstairs master BR has vaulted ceilings & skylights. Three other bedrooms, one w/ full bath attached. Full finished basement w/ bathroom.

22. 2010-09-16
    listed $690,000
23. 2010-02-11
    listed $738,000
24. 1987-08-18
    soldstatus $387,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $24,496 · $2,041/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $43,373 · $3,614/mo
• Expected delta: +$18,877/yr (+$1,573/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $1,000,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$140,039
• − Property taxes: −$24,496
• − Insurance: −$12,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$80,056
• − Management: −$80,056
• − Depreciation: −$72,727
• Taxable income: $590,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141,799
• After-tax cash flow: $454,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Long Branch School District
• NCES district ID: 3417490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $87,522
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3108
• State rank: #154 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Long Branch

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #7916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Long Branch, NJ
• City population: 8,576
• Population (ZIP): 8,576

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.51%
• Current HPI: 432.648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+546.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $2,500,000 MOMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $2,700,000 MOMLS
• 2015-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $557,500 Public Records
• 2015-10-21 Sold (MLS) $557,500 MOMLS
• 2015-10-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-03-31 Price Changed $625,000 MOMLS
• 2014-12-12 Listed $650,000 MOMLS
• 2010-09-16 Listed $690,000 MOMLS
• 2010-02-11 Listed $738,000 MOMLS
• 1987-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $387,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $24,496 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.