805 Bluffs Dr N

Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$685,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax + insurance: −$737
• HOA: −$690
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $-1,563/mo
• Annual: $-18,760/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.78%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $191,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $685k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (36.1% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($644k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $409k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $685k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?