805 Bluffs Dr N · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$685,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Condo public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1994 $544/sqft · at area comps Est $660k · at est. $690/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Knolls at Fox Hill located in Baiting Hollow, the gateway to the renowned North Fork Wine Country. This exceptional waterfront condominium offers unobstructed panoramic views of the Long Island Sound and breathtaking sunsets. This beautifully renovated lower unit has undergone a complete gut renovation and features a brand-new kitchen with quartz countertops, top-of-the-line LG appliances, and sliding doors that open to a private front courtyard—perfect for grilling and gardening. The open-concept living and dining area includes a stunning double-sided gas fireplace and new sliding doors leading to a spacious waterfront deck. The primary bedroom offers a large walk-in closet, a beautifully renovated bathroom, a cozy fireplace, and sliding doors with direct access to the waterside deck. A renovated guest bedroom and guest bathroom provide comfortable accommodations for visitors, and the laundry room includes new appliances. Additional upgrades include a new HVAC system, new security system, new electric panel, and new blown in insulation. Residents enjoy exclusive resort-style amenities, including private beach access, an Olympic-size swimming pool, pool house, fitness center, three tennis courts, four pickleball courts, a bocce court, and a playground. Conveniently located near shopping and dining, the community is adjacent to the world-class Baiting Hollow Golf Club. All this just 90 minutes from New York City.

Key facts

• $690 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $685k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($644k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $685k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $408,830 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.78%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $660,362
• List price: $685,000
• Delta: 3.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-7,352
• Equity at exit: $318,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $102,207
• Equity at exit: $498,150

Cash invested: $191,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,417/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$690
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $-1,563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,353

Max offer price $408,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,176	-5% $-1,369	+0% $-1,563	+5% $-1,757	+10% $-1,951
Rent	-10% $-1,909	-5% $-1,736	+0% $-1,563	+5% $-1,391	+10% $-1,218
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,218	-0.5pp $-1,389	base $-1,563	+0.5pp $-1,741	+1.0pp $-1,921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,250
• Closing costs: $20,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Fox Hill Dr Calverton, NY	2.0	2.0	1638	$3,900	$2.38	13d	1	0.14mi
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	25d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $690 · $8,280/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectricpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $685,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $685,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $685,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $685,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $685,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $685,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $685,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $685,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $685,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $685,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $685,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $685,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $685,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-03-30
    listed $685,000 Active 1457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1457 chars)

    Welcome to the Knolls at Fox Hill located in Baiting Hollow, the gateway to the renowned North Fork Wine Country. This exceptional waterfront condominium offers unobstructed panoramic views of the Long Island Sound and breathtaking sunsets. This beautifully renovated lower unit has undergone a complete gut renovation and features a brand-new kitchen with quartz countertops, top-of-the-line LG appliances, and sliding doors that open to a private front courtyard—perfect for grilling and gardening. The open-concept living and dining area includes a stunning double-sided gas fireplace and new sliding doors leading to a spacious waterfront deck. The primary bedroom offers a large walk-in closet, a beautifully renovated bathroom, a cozy fireplace, and sliding doors with direct access to the waterside deck. A renovated guest bedroom and guest bathroom provide comfortable accommodations for visitors, and the laundry room includes new appliances. Additional upgrades include a new HVAC system, new security system, new electric panel, and new blown in insulation. Residents enjoy exclusive resort-style amenities, including private beach access, an Olympic-size swimming pool, pool house, fitness center, three tennis courts, four pickleball courts, a bocce court, and a playground. Conveniently located near shopping and dining, the community is adjacent to the world-class Baiting Hollow Golf Club. All this just 90 minutes from New York City.

15. 2002-07-30
    soldstatus $275,000
16. 2001-01-02
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,417 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,497 · $708/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,080/yr (+$257/mo · 56.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,371
• − Property taxes: −$5,417
• − Insurance: −$3,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,199
• − Management: −$4,199
• − HOA: −$8,280
• − Depreciation: −$19,927
• Taxable loss: −$31,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,518
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+291.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $685,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,417 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.