807 Jay

Cotulla, TX 78014

$19,999D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · Built 1799 · SingleFamily · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $852/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $550/mo
• Annual: $6,595/yr
• Cap rate: 39.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.77%
• DSCR: 6.24
• 1% rule: 4.26%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $43 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $-95 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#422 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cotulla ISD (town): math 29% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #625 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ramirez-Burks El (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 478 students, 87% FRL); Frank Newman Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 273 students, 82% FRL); Cotulla H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 83% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1799 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in La Salle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• La Salle County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1799 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.