807 Jay · Cotulla, TX 78014

$19,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 278 Days on market

Built 1799 3,898 sqft lot $29/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! INVESTORS this property needs a lot of repairs but has potential. The property at 807 Jay St in Cotulla, TX, offers peaceful small-town living in a welcoming community. Known for its rich history and warm hospitality, Cotulla provides a serene lifestyle with local eateries, parks, and events reflecting the town's friendly spirit. Ideal for families or those seeking a quiet environment, this property is close to schools and outdoor activities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a real opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• 3,898 sq ft lot
• Built 1799
• Listed 278 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#422 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cotulla ISD (town): math 29% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #625 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ramirez-Burks El (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 478 students, 87% FRL); Frank Newman Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 273 students, 82% FRL); Cotulla H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in La Salle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $-95 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• La Salle County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1799 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1799 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.77%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,350
• List price: $19,999
• Delta: -72.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Nueces	0.75mi	2/1.0	672 (-1%)	22mo	$97,000	$144	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $33,977
• Equity at exit: $5,335

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.72×
• Total profit: $76,806
• Equity at exit: $6,047

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78014

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $124/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $156

Max offer price $19,999

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $555	+0% $550	+5% $544	+10% $538
Rent	-10% $482	-5% $516	+0% $550	+5% $583	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $555	base $550	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $19,999 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $19,999 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,249 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,249 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,249 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,249 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,249 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,249 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,249 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $24,249 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $24,249 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $24,249 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $24,249 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,249 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,249 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,249 Active 257 DOM
17. 2025-11-26
    status Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! INVESTORS this property needs a lot of repairs but has potential. The property at 807 Jay St in Cotulla, TX, offers peaceful small-town living in a welcoming community. Known for its rich history and warm hospitality, Cotulla provides a serene lifestyle with local eateries, parks, and events reflecting the town's friendly spirit. Ideal for families or those seeking a quiet environment, this property is close to schools and outdoor activities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a real opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

18. 2025-11-15
    status Pending 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! INVESTORS this property needs a lot of repairs but has potential. The property at 807 Jay St in Cotulla, TX, offers peaceful small-town living in a welcoming community. Known for its rich history and warm hospitality, Cotulla provides a serene lifestyle with local eateries, parks, and events reflecting the town's friendly spirit. Ideal for families or those seeking a quiet environment, this property is close to schools and outdoor activities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a real opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

19. 2025-09-05
    listed $24,249 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! INVESTORS this property needs a lot of repairs but has potential. The property at 807 Jay St in Cotulla, TX, offers peaceful small-town living in a welcoming community. Known for its rich history and warm hospitality, Cotulla provides a serene lifestyle with local eateries, parks, and events reflecting the town's friendly spirit. Ideal for families or those seeking a quiet environment, this property is close to schools and outdoor activities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a real opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $124 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $366 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$242/yr (+$20/mo · 195.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$124
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $6,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $4,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cotulla ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,728
• Composite: 25.66/100
• National rank: #7398
• State rank: #625 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cotulla

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #8674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cotulla, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (La Salle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,215 people
• By 2030: 10,075 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 11,748 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 13,629 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 18,139 · +96.8%
• By 2100: 20,858 · +126.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 36% White 11% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 57%

Political lean MEDSL · La Salle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.5) · D 39.5% · R 60.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: -20.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.5 2020: R+11.8 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 75.8686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $24,249 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $124 · -57.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.