38 Hurd Rd #35

Satsop, WA 98541

$45,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $1,002/mo
• Annual: $12,027/yr
• Cap rate: 33.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.45%
• DSCR: 5.25
• 1% rule: 3.56%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#423 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, health & safety C-.
• Elma School District (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.