38 Hurd Rd #35 · Satsop, WA 98541

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $54/sqft · 49% above area Est $30k · 49% over ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable and affordable living in this updated 2-bedroom, 1 full bath manufactured home located in Hunters Prairie Park. This inviting home features modern updates throughout, creating a move-in-ready space. Enjoy outdoor living with a large deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with a small, easy-to-maintain yard. A convenient carport provides covered parking and added storage options. With no age restrictions and a location just minutes from the greens at Oaksridge Golf Course, this home offers a great blend of comfort, convenience, and recreation in the heart of Elma. Seller is offering Owner Financing.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Small yard
• Convenient carport

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• LARGE DECK
• SMALL YARD
• CONVENIENT CARPORT
• MINUTES FROM GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#423 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, health & safety C-.
• Elma School District (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.45%
• DSCR: 5.25
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,122
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 49.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $56,536
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.43×
• Total profit: $131,404
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98541

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $90/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 W Main St Apt E Elma, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	13d	1	1.36mi
1201 W Main St Unit H Elma, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	21d	1	1.36mi
1116 Wakefield St Elma, WA	2.0	1.0	775	$1,710	$2.21	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $45,000
11. 2026-04-04
    price $47,000
12. 2026-03-09
    listed $49,900 Active
13. 2024-11-19
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed
14. 2024-11-02
    status Pending
15. 2024-10-23
    price $65,000
16. 2024-09-20
    listed $72,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $90 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 388.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$90
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,877
• After-tax cash flow: $9,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated 2-bedroom, 1 full bath manufactured home is move-in ready with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great blend of comfort, convenience, and recreation in the heart of Elma.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both update flooring — modernizes space and adds value
• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernizes space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes space and adds value ↑
• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernizes space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elma School District
• NCES district ID: 5302490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,658
• Composite: 44.76/100
• National rank: #5959
• State rank: #146 of 291 in WA

Livability — Satsop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #16784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 109
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.43%
• Current HPI: 199.9988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $47,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-20 Listed $72,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid