450 Palm Dr

Wickenburg, AZ 85390

$625,000D-

None bd · None ba · 1,751 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$1,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,099
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,212/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-46/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $598k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($588k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $523k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $625k implies a 390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Wickenburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,234/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?