7147 Agarita Mist

Fair Oaks Ranch, TX 78015

$1C-

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,773 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax + insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$99
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $2,110/mo
• Annual: $25,318/yr
• Cap rate: 2531843.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9042277.24%
• DSCR: 402331.46
• 1% rule: 279604.00%
• Cash to close: $0

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rahe Bulverde El (math 66% / reading 70%, grade B+, #181 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 489 students, 22% FRL); Spring Branch Middle (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 578 students, 27% FRL); Smithson Valley H S (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,332 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2531843.9% vs local median 1.0% in Fair Oaks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.