112 Billerbeck St

Oxford, PA 17350

$215,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $667/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($667/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (9.7% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $194k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#999 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Oxford El Sch (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 563 students, 52% FRL); Conewago Valley Intrmd Sch (math 38% / reading 57%, grade C-, #156 of 512 statewide, top 32%, 850 students, 46% FRL); New Oxford Shs (math 80% / reading 10%, grade D-, #192 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 1,249 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.